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 Rev. Fr. Moses Orshio Adasu University, Makurdi

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH (JESR), Vol. 12 No. 2 (2026)



Inflation–Unemployment Nexus: Testing The Phillips Curve and Stagflation Hypotheses in Nigeria



Abstract

This study investigates the impact of inflation on unemployment in Nigeria using quarterly data from 2000 Q1 to 2025 Q4. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to capture both short-run and long-run relationships, controlling for interest rates, exchange rates, GDP growth, and foreign direct investment. The findings reveal that inflation exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on unemployment in both the short run and the long run time horizon. This contradicts the traditional Phillips Curve hypothesis, which postulates an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, and instead supports the stagflation hypothesis. Exchange rate exhibits a positive and statistically significant effect on unemployment in the short run, while GDP growth and FDI demonstrate negative but insignificant long-run effects. The study concludes that Nigeria is experiencing stagflationary conditions where high inflation coexists with high unemployment. Policy recommendations include addressing structural drivers of both inflation and unemployment simultaneously.



Key words: Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, Unemployment, Philips Curve, Stagflation Hypotheses

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