This study examines the relationship between Value Added Tax (VAT) and household consumption expenditure in Nigeria by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach. The analysis covers the period from 1994 to 2023 and incorporates key macroeconomic variables including VAT revenue, household consumption expenditure, per capita income, and the inflation rate. Annual data for the period 1994-2023 were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical Bulletin and the World Bank Development Indicators Database. The empirical findings reveal that VAT has a negative relationship with household consumption expenditure in both the short run and the long run. However, the coefficients are statistically insignificant, implying that VAT had no measurable impact on household consumption during the study period. In contrast, per capita income emerges as the most consistent determinant of household consumption expenditure. The results indicate that increases in income levels contribute significantly to improvements in household spending. Based on the findings, the study recommends that economic policies prioritize income growth and household purchasing power. Strengthening per capita income is likely to yield more meaningful gains in consumption expenditure than adjustment to VAT policy alone.
| DOWNLOAD COMPLETE ARTICLE HERE (CLICK) |