This study examines the effect of liquidity management on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1990–2024, using annual time-series data on real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), broad money supply (M2), inflation (INF), the trade balance (TBL), government expenditure (GEX), the interest rate (INT), and the official exchange rate (EXR). The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests confirm that all variables are integrated of order one, I (1), with the exception of broad money supply, for which the two tests offer conflicting evidence at levels; none of the series is integrated of order two, satisfying the pre-condition for ARDL bounds testing. The bounds test (F-statistic = 10.21) confirms a statistically significant long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. In the long run, broad money supply and the trade balance exert a positive and statistically significant effect on real GDP, while the interest rate and the exchange rate exert a negative and statistically significant effect; government expenditure and inflation are not statistically significant in the long run. The error correction term is negative, as theory predicts, with roughly 27 percent of any deviation from long-run equilibrium corrected within a year.
In the short run, lagged money supply growth and exchange rate movements are the dominant significant drivers of output growth. Diagnostic tests indicate that the residuals are normally distributed and that the model is correctly specified. The study concludes that liquidity management, particularly through money supply and interest rate channels, has a significant long-run influence on Nigeria's economic growth, and recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria pursue a calibrated expansion of money supply, moderate the cost of borrowing, and pursue exchange rate stability alongside more efficient public expenditure management.
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